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【独家】光伏管道扩张建设亟待政策支持
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  2016年欧洲落地式光伏容量或将比去年下降40%,预计将于2018年后这种趋势就能复苏。其中,部分复苏成果或将体现在目前还不存在的市场中的未来需求。

  据IHS Markit观察,包括爱尔兰、西班牙和葡萄牙在内的欧洲落地式光伏管道市场发展并没有明确的项目支持。正如我们过去在其他国家所看到的,一旦监管框架可以为投资者确保足够的收入,这些计划的项目就可以得到快速开展。

  在西班牙最近宣布的可再生能源招标计划中,可能包括2兆瓦太阳能发电,使得开发商在当前处于休眠状态下的市场环境下燃起了建立光伏发电厂的希望。过去四年里,有超过8千瓦的光伏项目开发获得了并网许可,但是大多数项目并未取得突破性进展。

  IHS Markit追踪的这些项目中,近2 GW在过去一年中有所进展,收到了最终的建设许可。这些项目的开发者声称项目收入将来自电力批发市场的销售额,然而,这IHS Markit认为这种方式的风险很高,绝大多数项目获得必要融资的机会将会很低。但是,未来五年一些管道项目或将增加潜在的光伏项目竞标融资的可能性。

  葡萄牙开发商的目标也是电力批发市场,但比西班牙的电力批发市场规模要小。事实上, 2.3兆瓦项目的并网申请已经提交,但现在除非葡萄牙宣布对大规模光伏电厂坚实有力的支持,不然大部分的规划项目只能是镜花水月。没有固定费率的购电协议的话,项目融资就非常困难。伊比利亚半岛的电价不足以证明投资价值,光伏项目要保证有长期收益。

  在爱尔兰,政策制定者正准备在2017年施行一种激励机制。该国是欧洲市场的光伏管道在过去一年增长最快的国家。IHS Markit目前跟踪了该国3兆瓦的光伏项目,分别处于不同的批准阶段。所有这些项目都将希望押在落地式光伏项目的未来激励政策上。一些已经公布的细节透露了未来或将在税费或建设条件方面带来的支持。如果具有吸引力的支持计划能够到位,光伏发电或将迎来一波建设浪潮。

  上述三国光伏市场的开发商目前正在急切地建立光伏管道,企图改善当地环境,进一步降低光伏系统价格。然而,这些国家对整个欧洲落地式光伏市场带来的贡献仍然悬而未决,具体还要取决于监管规定何时落地。(本文由中国环保网www.chinaenvironment.com 高晶 翻译,如需转载,请注明出处)


  原文:Growing PV pipelines across Europe await policy support


  The demand for ground-mount photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Europe will decline by 40 percent in 2016 over the previous year, but recovery is expected after 2018. Part of this recovery will take place through future demand in currently non-existing markets.

  IHS Markit has observed an evolution of ground-mount PV pipelines in European markets without explicit support for such projects, including Ireland, Spain and Portugal. As we have seen in other countries in the past, these planned projects could be installed very quickly, as soon as a regulatory framework can ensure sufficient revenues for investors.

  In Spain, recently announced initial plans for a renewable power tender that could include 2 gigawatts (GW) of solar power is reviving the hope to deploy PV plants among developers with planned projects in this currently dormant market. More than 8 GW of PV projects under development have secured grid-connection permits over the past four years, but the majority has not advanced further.

  Of these projects, IHS Markit is tracking close to 2 GW that have advanced over the past year toward receiving final construction approval. The developers of these projects claim that the revenue from these projects would come from selling power on the wholesale power market, an approach that IHS Markit deems highly risky, with low chances for most projects to secure the necessary financing. However, a potential PV tender increases the likelihood that some of the pipeline projects could be built over the next five years.

  PV developers in Portugal also claim to target the wholesale power market, but with smaller scale than in Spain.  In fact, grid-connection applications for 2.3 GW of projects have already been filed, but until Portugal announces a solid support scheme for large-scale PV plants, the majority of planned projects are unrealistic. It will be very difficult to finance projects without fixed-rate power purchase agreements. Iberian power prices do not justify such an investment, and PV projects need guaranteed long-term revenues to be viable.

  In Ireland, policy makers are preparing an incentive scheme to come into place in 2017. This is also the European market where the PV pipeline has grown most rapidly over the past year. IHS Markit currently tracks 3 GW of PV projects in Ireland at various stages of permitting. All of these projects are betting on future incentives for ground-mount PV projects. Few details have been released regarding the tariffs or conditions in a future support scheme. If an attractive scheme comes into place, a wave of construction activity can be expected.

  These are three markets, where developers have eagerly built up PV pipelines in anticipation of improved local conditions, and further decline in PV system prices. The exact contribution that these countries will provide to the overall ground-mount PV market in Europe still hinges on regulatory provisions that have yet to be rolled out.


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